Jesse Marks writes Coffee in the Desert, a newsletter about China’s expanding role in the Middle East and related topics. He previously worked as a Middle East policy advisor in the U.S. government. He regularly participates in multilateral dialogues—what specialists call “Track I.5 & Track II Diplomacy”—focused on relations between China, the Middle East and North Africa, and the U.S.
We chatted earlier today about what the Iran war means for China’s relations with the countries of the Persian Gulf and Middle East, including the following:
An overview of China’s relationships in the Gulf
Iran’s place in Chinese foreign policy: it’s complicated
The 2023 Saudi-Iran normalization brokered by China
Washington and Beijing both want a non-nuclear Iran and an open Strait of Hormuz, but they have incompatible views on how to get there.
Why China won’t help Trump in the Strait
The erosion of U.S. sanctions and China’s alternative payment systems like China’s CIPS
Discussion in China about the American use of AI for targeting and the Iranian attacks on AWS infrastructure
The wild card we didn’t discuss in detail: Israel
Expectations for the Trump-Xi summit
Who to watch: special envoy Zhái Jùn 翟隽
Thanks to everyone who joined the live session, and there should be another one next week barring airline chaos—I am flying to New Zealand tomorrow. Please email me if you have any topics you’re especially interested in.
