China's plan for the next five years
The significance of the Communist Party meeting that ended this week in Beijing, and other news from China.
This is The China Week, a succinct analysis of news from the People’s Republic. Please take out a paying subscription to receive all full newsletters and access to the archive.
Fourth Plenum of the 20th Communist Party Central Committee
The Party’s plan: More of the same
The Chinese Communist Party concluded an important meeting this week in Beijing which set the general direction for the country’s next Five-Year Plan, a roadmap for how China will be run from 2026 to 2030. (Official communiqués: Chinese, English).
This was the Fourth Plenum of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party. The first Central Committee was formed in 1927, and continued to be the Party’s major leadership organ after the establishment of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. Since then a new Committee has been formed about every five years, and the country’s leader must rule with its support (or occasionally in defiance of it).
These are my main takeaways from the Fourth Plenum:
Xi is very much in charge, no major changes ahead
The Fourth Plenum this week was attended by 315 of China’s most powerful people, mostly men, down from the 376 members listed at the beginning of the current Central Committee’s in 2022. Many of the missing were victims of Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaigns. The Wall Street Journal says that “the reduced ranks in the party elite reflect how Xi has centralized control.”
This month China also officially purged Hé Wèidōng 何卫东 the Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission and eight other high-ranking military commanders.
With this is mind, it’s clear Xi is still very much in charge. And with him, policy continuity: we can expect no major government changes in the near future.
Geopolitical swagger
The Plenum Communiqué conveyed confidence in the China’s ability to compete with the U.S., and growing international assertiveness.
At a press conference about the Plenum, Central Committee member Hán Wénxiù 韩文秀 said that while “the world’s century-long transformation is accelerating, and the international balance of power is undergoing profound adjustments. China possesses many favorable factors for proactively maneuvering international space and shaping the external environment.”
“Century-long transformation” is a reference to a phrase popularized by Xi Jinping that is generally understood to refer to global change, but in particular to the decline of the U.S. and the rise of China, and to the opportunities for China to move to the center of the global stage.
This is unlikely to mean any dramatic moves, but rather a continuation of Beijing’s slow, steady advance to centrality to world commerce, finance, infrastructure, and growing influence in global institutions like the WTO and UN.
Around China
Notables
Other news that caught my eye:
Strengthening the protection of women’s rights is the aim of new rules issued by the Shanxi provincial government that explicitly prohibit “defamation and insults against older unmarried women, as well as discrimination against and abuse of women who give birth to baby girls or infants with disabilities, and infertile women.”
A new round of trade talks with the U.S. has begun this weekend in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, where Chinese Vice-Premier Hé Lìfēng 何立峰 and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are meeting, “paving the way for a possible meeting between the presidents of the world’s two largest economies.”
Related: “Waiting times for commodity vessels queued off China’s ports increased to the lengthiest this year, as the geopolitical sparring between Beijing and Washington disrupts global trade,” per Bloomberg.
China’s AI wunderkind, DeepSeek, released a new model with optical character recognition, i.e. the ability to read text in images, and China e-commerce platforms are rolling out AI-enabled shopping features for the upcoming November 11 Singles’ Day shopping festival.
Around the internet
Essays, opinions, interviews
Worth your time:
What do China’s tech bros read? Or in Afra Wang’s language: “How does the paideía of the Chinese tech elite differ from their counterparts in Silicon Valley?”
“Mistress Dispeller”—Q&A with documentary filmmaker Elizabeth Lo by Suan Jakes. If you’re in New York, you can watch the film at IFC Center through October 30.
“Why China’s rise might not be peaceful: History shows that the establishment of new institutions and norms is almost always accompanied by violent measures.”—Jin Canrong translated by Sinification.
“The great reckoning: What the West should learn from China”—an essay by Kaiser Kuo. Also on Kuo’s Sinica podcast: The view from behind Xi Jinping’s desk with Jonathan Czin.
Who briefs China’s top decision-makers on the economy? A translation by Fred Gao of a report on experts who have participated in “high-level economic seminars” attended by Xi Jinping since 2012.
“Forever Xi Jinping? Perhaps not” is the title of an essay by former top CIA China analyst Chris Johnson on Sinocism. See also the afore-mentioned Jonathan Czin, also formerly of the CIA, in Foreign Affairs: “China against China: Xi Jinping confronts the downsides of success.